In the context of strategic management, scenarios are stories that describe how the environment may evolve in the future. They are crucially dependent on the environmental scanning process for the provision of information on which the scenarios will be based. When developed and structured, scenarios may portray current conditions or refer to future states of the organizational environment. Scenario planning may be considered an important element of organizational learning. As managers actively discuss their individual visions about the several aspects of the environment, they gain a shared vision of what types of strategic issues their organization face.
The present unit will promote a discussion of the central concepts and techniques related to scenario planning.
SCHWARTZ, P. The Art of the Long View. New York, NY: Doubleday Currency, 1991.
See a chapter-by-chapter summary.
VAN DER HEIJDEN, K. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. New York, NY: Wiley, 1996.
WACK, P. Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review, v.63, n.5, p.72-89, Sept/Oct. 1985.
WACK, P. Scenarios: Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, v.63, n.6, p.139-150, Nov/Dec 1985.
See also the Scenario Planning Bibliography edited by Kees van der Heijden at Global Business Network.