INF 1005 Information Workshop: Futures Thinking

2020 Winter Term SECTION 4

Instructor: Chun Wei Choo

Site address: uoft.me/inf1005

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Please check this page regularly for course-related announcements.



COURSE DESCRIPTION

This workshop introduces students to concepts and methods related to futures thinking - a systematic approach for organizations and their stakeholders to seek information and reflect on major future changes that can affect the growth and development of the organization. The workshop discusses the theory and techniques of environmental scanning and the development of strategic foresight that will enable organizations to navigate uncertainty and position themselves for the future. Students will have an opportunity to apply scenario planning as a structured methodology to illuminate and stimulate dialogue about complex issues that affect the futures of organizations in the public, private, or nonprofit sector.

Course Learning Outcomes

At the end of this course, students should be able to:

Relationship to MI Program Learning Outcomes

This course helps students to understand the concepts and practices in the development of organizational foresight as an information-intensive activity of organizations (Program Outcome 1, 4). The knowledge and values imparted in the course enable students to exercise leadership and care in the imagination and evaluation of alternative future scenarios and how they could shape information services (Program Outcome 2). Through their scenario planning projects, students learn to carry out research and and analysis that would deepen our understanding of major issues confronting organizations and instituions (Program Outcome 3). Finally, students learn to anticipate the broader consequences of new technological developments as a key element of developing organizational foresight (Program Outcome 5).


Recommended Texts

See Readings List.

Evaluation

Students form six groups of four to work on selected FOCAL ISSUES. There are two assignments.

In the first asssignment, students conduct an environmental scan to identify major factors and forces of change in the external environment that can significantly influence how the focal issue develops and what the outcomes will be. [40%]

In the second assignment, students develop, write up, and present four scenarios based on the major factors and forces of change identified in the environmental scan. They analyze each scenario to derive strategic implications and leading indicators. [50%]

Participation accounts for 10% of the course assessment. Students are encouraged to participate actively during the in-class workshops, and it is important that students complete their individual and group work within the time frames defined.

Instructor Availability

Students should feel free to discuss course-related matters with the instructor at any time. Chun Wei's office is Room 628; telephone 416.978.5266; e-mail . Office hours TBA.


ACADEMIC POLICIES

Academic integrity

Please consult the University's site on Academic Integrity. The iSchool has a zero-tolerance policy on plagiarism as defined in section B.I. 1. (d) of the University's Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters. You should acquaint yourself with the Code and Appendix A Section 2. Please review the material you covered in Cite it Right and consult the site How Not to Plagiarize. Cite it Right covers relevant parts of the U of T Code of Behaviour on Academic Matters. It is expected that all iSchool students take the Cite it Right workshop and the online quiz. Completion of the online Cite It Right quiz should be made prior to the second week of classes. To review and complete the workshop, go to the Inforum Orientation Workshops site.

Accommodation of students with disabilities

Students with diverse learning styles and needs are welcome in this course. In particular, if you have a disability or health consideration that may require accommodations, please feel free to approach me and/or the Accessibility Services Office as soon as possible. The Accessibility Services staff are available by appointment to assess specific needs, provide referrals and arrange appropriate accommodations. The sooner you let them and me know your needs, the quicker we can assist you in achieving your learning goals in this course.

Writing support

The Graduate Centre for Academic Communication provides writing support for graduate students. The services are designed to target the needs of both native and non-native speakers of English and include courses, workshops, individual writing consultations, and online resources. Please avail yourself of these services.

Grading

Please consult:

These documents will form the basis for grading in the course.


COURSE SCHEDULE

Week 1 (Jan 7, 2020)

Week 2 (Jan 14, 2020)

Week 3 (Jan 21, 2020)

Workshop (1): Environmental scanning

Students come to class having completed an initial environmental scan for the focal issue. Each student in a group scans one of four environmental sectors (STEP).

During the workshop, each group:

Assignment 1 (Environmental Scan report) due end of day Jan 27, 2020.

Week 4 (Jan 28, 2020)

Workshop (2): Scenario construction

During this workshop, each group of students:

Week 5 (Feb 4, 2020)

Workshop (3): Scenario analysis

Students come to class having developed and written up draft versions of the scenarios they have been assigned in Workshop (2).

In this workshop, each group:

Assignment 2 (Scenario Planning report) due by 5pm on Feb 10, 2020.

Week 6 (Feb 11, 2020)

Groups present and discuss their scenario analyses.


Assignment 1: Environmental Scan

The objective of this assignment is to conduct an environmental scan to identify major factors and forces of change in the external environment that can significantly influence how the FOCAL ISSUE develops and what the outcomes will be.

After Workshop (1), each group of students prepares an environmental scan report that:

The report should also include as appendices the initial scans of environmental sectors conducted by individual group members. Each appendix should include the student's name, the sector scanned, a set of 3 major factors identified in the scan, a short description of how each factor might develop and affect the focal issue, and a list of references.

The environmental scan report is to be submitted on Quecurs, with a copy emailed to the instructor, by the end of day Jan 27, 2020.

The environmental scan report is 40% of the course grade, and will be evaluated according to these criteria:


Assignment 2: Scenario Planning

The objective of this assignment is to construct scenarios based on selected critical uncertainties, predetermined elements and other forces of change, and to analyze these scenarios in order to derive strategy implications and leading indicators.

After Workshop (3), each group prepares a scenario planning report as follows:

In the Week 6 class, each group presents their scenario analysis.
The presentation should cover the following: focal issue and user organization; critical uncertainties; each scenario and its strategic implications. The presentation should take 20 minutes.

The scenario planning report and presentation slides are to be submitted on Quercus, with a copy emailed to the instructor, by 5pm on Feb 10, 2020.

The scenario planning report and the presentation together is 50% of the course grade, and will be evaluated according to these criteria:


READINGS

ARL (Association of Research Libraries). (2010). The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User's Guide for Research Libraries. Washington, DC: Association of Research Libraries. [Full-text ERIC link]

Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler Publishers. [Preview]

Choo, C. W. (2002). Information Management for the Intelligent Organization: The Art of Scanning the Environment (3rd ed.). Medford, NJ: Information Today, Inc. [UT link]

Choo, C. W. (2005). Environmental Scanning as Information Seeking and Organizational Learning. In E. Maceviciute & T. D. Wilson (Eds.), Introducing Information Management (pp. 83-97). London, UK: Facet Publishing. http://InformationR.net/ir/7-1/paper112.html

Conway, M. (2014) Foresight: An Introduction. Melbourne, Australia: Thinking Futures. [PDF]

Giesecke, J., Cawthorne, J., & Pearson, D. (Eds.). (2015). Navigating the Future with Scenario Planning: A Guidebook for Librarians. e-book. Chicago, IL: ACRL. [ALA store link]

Haigh, Narida. (2019). Scenario Planning for Climate Change: A guide for strategists. London: Routledge. [Book full text UT link]

Kahane, A., and Kees Van Der Heijden. (2012). Transformative scenario planning: Working together to change the future. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler Publishers. [SSIR link]

Konno, N., Nonaka, I., & Ogilvy, J. (2014). Scenario planning: the basics. World Futures, 70(1): 28-43. [Scholars Portal link]

Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2003). Scenario Planning: The link between future and strategy. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. [UT link]

Muhammad, A., Tugrul, U. D., & Antonie, J. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23-40. [Scholars Portal link]

NSW State Library (2009). The Bookends Scenarios: Possible futures for NSW public libraries in the year 2030. New South Wales, Australia: Library Council of NSW. [PDF]

O'Connor, S., & Sidorko, P. (2010). Imagine your library's future: scenario planning for libraries and information organisations. Oxford, UK: Chandos. [ScienceDirect link]

Ogilvy, J., and Schwartz, P. (2004). Plotting Your Scenarios. Emeryville, CA: Global Business Network. [Meadowlark Institute full-text link]

Oliver, J. J., & Parrett, E. (2018). Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning. Business Horizons, 61(2), 339-352. [Scholars Portal link]

Ramirez, Rafael & Angela Wilkinson. (2016). Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. New York: Oxford University Press. [Book full text UT link]

Ringland, G. (2002). Scenarios in Public Policy. New York: John Wiley. [UT link]

Scearce, D., & Fulton, K. (2004). What if? The art of scenario thinking for nonprofits. Emeryville, CA: Global Business Network. [Wallace Foundation full-text link]

Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool For Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40. [UT link]

Tsoukas, H., & Shepherd, J. (Eds.). (2004). Managing the Future: Foresight in the Knowledge Economy. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. [UT link]

van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (2nd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. [UT link]

Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. foresight, 5(3), 10-21. [Scholars Portal link]

Wulf, Torsten, Christian Brands & Philip Meissner. 2011. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning. Tool description: Impact/Uncertainty Grid. Leipzig, Germany: HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management, Center for Scenario Planning.